New Year’s Resolution: Fight Back in Putin’s Shadow War

It is well-known that Russia is waging a shadow war against the West, aiming to limit our ability to help Ukraine, sowing fear and confusion, polarising our societies, and, in effect, weakening NATO by reducing our will to defend ourselves.

Kinetic attacks, such as the recent “damaged cables in the Baltic Sea” incidents, are deployed to create a sense of vulnerability in the minds of those affected. A single incident could be treated as an accident, albeit a very strange one, but the second occurrence looks too convenient to be a coincidence. The third such incident clearly indicated an act of state-sponsored terrorism, and one would expect a stern response.

But Russia is betting that the doctrine of de-escalation—a rebranding of the failed strategy of appeasement—will continue to prevent NATO countries from any meaningful response, allowing Russia to act with impunity. When all NATO does is issue a statement of concern, Russia's gamble pays off and the sense of fear in our societies continues to grow, and grow, and grow, up to the point where it will start strongly influencing political processes. 

When media reports focus repeatedly on Russian meddling in the Baltic Sea, they unintentionally reinforce the perception that the Baltic Sea is not surrounded by NATO but is dominated by Russia. This creates a manufactured reality of insecurity that becomes increasingly difficult to diffuse as more people begin to accept it as truth.

NATO’s guarantees of security rest not only on military capabilities, but also on trust and an almost metaphysical belief in deterrence—we say we are the mightiest alliance in the world, so we must be. But unchecked Russian activity is steadily eroding this façade.

Three years ago, when Lukashenko hijacked a Ryanair flight bound from Athens to Vilnius, people believed every explanation except hijacking. Since then, the three years of war, sabotage, and terrorist activity have reshaped our thinking. When a DHL cargo plane crashed on approach to Vilnius airport a couple of weeks ago, it was hard to find anyone who refused to consider the possibility of Russian involvement.

Another way Russia disrupts our paradigms of thinking is through its агентура, or “agency activity”. Lex Fridman, a prominent podcaster, recently proposed interviewing President Zelenskyy in Russian, “because they both speak it.” This logic of “ethnic brotherhood” springs directly from the Agency handbook. It would fit seamlessly into any of Putin’s infamous FT op-eds or his speeches at Munich.

Some people called Lex’s tweet weird. I disagree—it was utterly consistent. Consistent with Russian messaging. One of the fundamental ways Russia whitewashes its aggression is by denying the existence of a separate Ukrainian culture, language, and statehood. When Russia says, “We are brothers,” this is not a declaration of fraternal support—this is a call to disregard the distinct identity of the “other brother”. As some Russians like to say: “We will choke you in our embrace.”

And like the cables in the Baltic Sea, this is not just about disrupting everyday life—it’s about influencing how we think. Democratic societies, by their nature, are open, easy to probe, and therefore easy to influence.

It takes time to push back, to fact-check lies, to explain complex historical realities, to counter the FUD that Russia’s agency activity spreads quickly and effectively. But time is not on our side. In 2025, with increased power and determination, we must push back on both fronts of Russia’s shadow war: against the deliberate disruptions of our daily lives, and against all attempts to win the battle for our minds.

Putin knows he could not win against a united West. But if we are fractured, scared and indecisive we become a target he might attempt to hit. Putin’s shadow war has been keeping us where he wants us. When we realise this, breaking his spell shouldn’t be difficult.