Tomorrow the world will change, again

Trump is almost back in the White House, and China wants everybody to lose.

Let me share some more thoughts, written on a plane, inspired by my recent travels.

It was a tremendous honor to be presented with an award by Taiwan. It felt very special and even unreal to listen to what the President of Taiwan was saying during my trip.

During one of the meetings I was welcomed “back” to Taiwan. This made me stop for a second—actually it is my first visit to the island. But, the politics, the diplomacy, and all the troubles we had to overcome together make it feel like I have been there many times.

Two themes were repeated in conversations throughout my trip. One was Lithuania’s donation of COVID vaccines in 2021.

Vaccine diplomacy

Back then many countries were starting to receive serious quantities of both AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines. Even though Lithuania was leading the region according to the percentage of people vaccinated, the stocks of vaccines were piling up.

So the Foreign Ministry proposed donating the surplus vaccines to our partners in need, especially as we knew that even more doses would be reaching us soon. The first batches of donations went to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Taiwan.

At the time there were accusations that western countries were not doing enough, as if they were going to make everyone wait until they had vaccinated themselves first. It was known that it would still take a long time for regular orders to reach those countries, and while waiting, the pressures on the governments of those countries would only grow. Lithuania stepping up with donations would show solidarity with the people who were waiting, and hopefully would inspire other countries to join in.

Furthermore, this display of readiness allowed these countries to better control the debate about whether they should be using the dubious Russian and Chinese vaccines. 

Another aim of our vaccine diplomacy with Taiwan was to break the uncomfortable silence. It sometimes seemed that Taiwan was being kept out of public discourse (except in the US). China turned the Taiwan question into a diplomatic minefield. You could never be sure when a red line might be crossed because their red lines keep moving, so it's safer not to go anywhere at all. Even vaccine donations might be viewed as something potentially dangerous, but our decision broke the silence and forced the debate into the spotlight. The people of Taiwan deserve help from their friends, as do people everywhere.

The Office

Another common topic of conversation, far more widely discussed around the world, was "The Office". Allowing Taiwan to use the word “Taiwanese” in the name of their representative office drew the world’s attention to the new and separate identity that is now dominating among the people of Taiwan. During my trip I had quite a few opportunities to ask, “how do you identify yourself?” and I nearly always got the answer: “I am Taiwanese”. 

China's intention is to shroud the island of Taiwan in a mist, in obscurity and silence. The world should not know, should not talk, should look the other way and ignore what is happening in Taiwan. 

The Chinese ambassador in Canberra wrote an op-ed in the Australian Financial Review. It is a propaganda piece about how China would like us to see Taiwan. What is most interesting is how it resembled similar propaganda pieces written by Russians before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The main thrust of the op-ed being “Taiwan is an internal issue of China”. 

Putin spoke the same way about Ukraine. “Ukrainians are our brothers”. And this tactic is creepingly effective.

“Brotherhood” immediately sounds like something sacrosanct. Those who don’t know better might start to think, “Well, the Chinese and Taiwanese speak the same language, share the same history and roots, so, maybe we should just stay out of it until these brothers solve their fraternal conflict”.

But, as in the case of Russia and Ukraine, you have to look deeper to understand the fundamental differences. And anyway, in Ukraine, the war has eradicated the last remnants of closeness between the people of those two countries. 

You can’t force anyone to be your brother. That is the lesson we should now remember when thinking about Taiwan.

Tomorrow the world changes, again

If China is trying to get us to ignore Taiwan, we have to do the opposite—be present, be aware and be interested. That’s the very least we can do to make Ukraine, Taiwan and all our other friends safer. Putin has been unable to brush Ukraine under the carpet because Ukrainians are not silent, they speak out about what is happening, show us the atrocities and in many cases it forces the West to act. Democracy really does die in darkness, but in the light it has a fighting chance. 

The world is changing dramatically, and the changes are most visible on the faultlines—in Ukraine, in Taiwan, and in the Baltics. Just days before I arrived in Taipei a data cable to Taiwan was cut by a Mongolian ship with a Chinese crew. The investigation is of course ongoing, but again the resemblance to events in the Baltics is uncanny. Could it not be an extension of the shadow war that we are seeing in Europe?

Until the investigation is complete we cannot know with certainty, but one thing is for sure: Western timidity in the shadow war clearly played a part in this escalation. China could have learned from the Russians that such operations are effective and worthwhile.

These “incidents” are designed to weaken us by making us tense, divided, and more easily scared. There are three positive outcomes for the attacker: Firstly, something might actually get burnt or someone might be killed. Secondly, people trust alliances less when they see how slow allies are to react, if they react at all. Finally, support for Ukraine dwindles as more people begin to subscribe to the defeatist myth that one should not poke The Bear.

So in effect Russia is putting a limit on how much we are able to support Ukraine. The aim of the shadow war is to scare us away, and, to some extent, it is working.

So why wouldn’t China do the same with Taiwan? There are many people ready to ask—”Do we really want to risk our infrastructure? Can we really patrol every important building? Maybe we should be deescalating?”. And that is exactly what Russia and China want. 

Frontline democracies are connected in more ways than many of us realise. I am humbled to receive such high recognition from the people of Taiwan, but, for us to remain safe much more has to be done. 

On Monday a new geopolitical era starts with the swearing in of a returning POTUS. And it is yet to be determined if this new era will reinvigorate democracies, prepare us for a standoff with autocratic regimes, or just distract us with constant disruptions while our enemies implement their wicked plans.

When entering a period of unknown unknowns we must, as much as possible, rely on ourselves and make the necessary preparations for stormier weather.

VoA interview for my thoughts on Ukraine

"The biggest mistake was to succumb to Russia's nuclear blackmail." 
https://www.holosameryky.com/a/gabrielius-landsbergis-interview/7940040.html

My recent thread on the WTO case

Just one more thing...

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